Mariano Rajoy’s resounding election win has redrawn Spain’s political map and put his Popular Party (PP) firmly in control of the country after seven-and-a-half years of Socialist government. He could hardly face a more difficult task on being voted prime minister. In the days leading up to the election, Spain’s economy was being battered by the markets, with its bond prices close to those of beleaguered Italy. Italy hopes it has just overcome its own political upheaval; Spain’s situation is less clear-cut. Spanish law dictates a lengthy hiatus between a prime minister’s election win and his instatement. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s successor as prime minister was not due to be sworn … [Read more...] about Rajoy must take reins swiftly to avoid economic chaos
spain debt
Why open Pandora’s Box?
Reforming the Constitution is a guaranteed way to open up a thousand and one debates about democracy in Spain. The 1978 referendum, in which the current Constitution was approved, was a turning point at a major crossroads in the political life of a country that aspired to be close to Europe, improve the quality of life of its citizens and take on the process of transitioning to democracy under the guidance of a parliamentary monarchy. To think that reforming the Constitution now is the only way to control the deficit is probably a reflection of the need for a renewal of the policies of the political parties, not necessarily generational change. The question is poignant: Is a reform of … [Read more...] about Why open Pandora’s Box?
Spain held hostage by its banks
When the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the Bank of Spain was one of few regulators lauded for having had the forethought to enact measures aimed at protecting the banking industry. It had prevented Spanish banks and savings banks from handing out the junk loans that brought down several American lenders, and, uniquely, it created a €40-billion “anti-crisis” fund at a time when many shorter-sighted bankers, economists and analysts thought the credit boom, on the back of low interest rates and rising property prices, would continue indefinitely. Four years later, Spain’s economy is now being held hostage by its banking industry as fears about the ability of banks and, in … [Read more...] about Spain held hostage by its banks
The market tears up Zapatero’s social contract
“My government’s ambition is to make this an innovative, creative, entrepreneurial country while upholding the social welfare state… I think we should learn the lesson of the Great Depression: when an economy enters a deep recession, the only way we can come out of it is from a big push from the public sector.” José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero uttered these words less than a year ago. At the time, with Spain mired in recession, critics could argue with his ideological stance, but nobody could doubt his convictions. However, the prime minister’s announcement on May 12 of a broad and radical raft of austerity measures has seen him perform the biggest U-turn of his six years in government … [Read more...] about The market tears up Zapatero’s social contract
What now for the “PIGS”?
Spanish savings bank La Caixa recently brought to market a €1-billion issue of three-year cédulas territoriales at 70 basis points over similar sovereign debt. As for the investors – 49 percent of these securities backed by loans to Spanish public administrations were picked up by German or British parties and 36 percent by locals. Given the horrific recent treatment of Greek debt, this benign event probably invites a closer look at the tenets behind the classification of a nation as one of the “PIGS” - as if the mere fact that Spanish sovereign 10-years are yielding approximately the same as when the crisis broke last December, whilst the Italian equivalent pays investors 10 basis points … [Read more...] about What now for the “PIGS”?
Navigating the impossible?
For someone who sets such great store by being photographed alongside the right people, January 28 was a fairly awful day for the Spanish prime minister. At the Davos World Economic Forum, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was pictured sitting between Greece’s Giorgos Papandreou and Latvia’s Valdis Zatlers. The inference was clear: Spain was in the same boat as Greece, which the EU has now agreed to help resolve its enormous public financing problems, and Latvia, which has Europe’s highest unemployment rate at nearly 23 percent. Much was made of the gaff by Zapatero’s handlers, who failed to put him in more reassuring company. But it was only the beginning of a perfect economic and political … [Read more...] about Navigating the impossible?
Running on Ẽmpty
A year after Spain’s centre-left government officially launched a massive stimulus package known as the Plan Ẽ, workers are still losing their jobs, public debt levels are scaring markets, and the economy is not likely to emerge from recession until 2011 at the earliest. Plan Ẽ, with its billions for public works projects, tax breaks and subsidies, was never intended to be more than a temporary bandage to get Spain through the worst of the fallout from the international financial crisis and the collapse of the domestic real estate and construction sector. But the wounds inflicted on Spain’s once booming economy have turned out to be slow to heal, and tearing the plaster off - as, for … [Read more...] about Running on Ẽmpty