Here is my latest update on the euro exchange rate, covering the 18th to 25th May 2012. This is intended as a brief guide to what’s affected the exchange rate this past week as well as what might happen next, to help you decide if now’s the best time for you to change currencies. This past week: 1. The euro fell to 1.27 against the US dollar, its lowest point since July 2010. This is as markets (over?) reacted to speculation Greece will exit the euro inside weeks. In addition, the suspension of Bankia shares, as the troubled Spanish bank announces it needs €12bn more in aid, contributed to concerns about a bank run in Spain. How might this affect you? Obviously, if you reside in … [Read more...] about Euro declines on Spanish bank run rumours
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Spain’s “technically impossible” euro exit
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, his Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, and Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro, have all been asked to respond to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s recent comments regarding what he called eurodämmerung: the end of the single currency. Unsurprisingly, they all repeated their commitment to the single currency, saying that Spain would not require a bailout, and that the spending cuts would continue. But like guilty men giving away what is really on their minds, all three went further, insisting that Spain would remain in the eurozone, and that a corralito was a “technical impossibility.” Corralito is a dreaded word in Spain, associated with the chaos that … [Read more...] about Spain’s “technically impossible” euro exit
Euro to end as Greece exit nears?
Here is my latest update of the British pound to euro exchange rate, covering the 11th to 18th May 2012. This is intended as a brief guide to what’s affected the exchange rate this past week as well as what might happen next, to help you decide if now’s the best time to change currencies. Pound to euro: -0.72% decrease on the week (from 1.254 to 1.245) +2.33% increase on the month (from 1.217 to 1.245) This past week: 1. Right-wing UK newspapers including The Telegraph and Daily Express have been openly discussing this week the possibility that the euro might soon end, as economists put the odds of Greece leaving the euro at 50.0% and above. 2. The pound has lost a cent against … [Read more...] about Euro to end as Greece exit nears?
Pound to euro stable as central banks hold rates
The situation in Greece especially has topped the headlines this past week, and had the potential to send the euro into meltdown had it not turned out so well. The Greek government conducted a debt swap, aimed at getting bondholders holding more than €200bn in Greek bonds to change their bonds for ones worth 75% less. Had they refused, Greece would have been refused its €130bn EU bailout and been forced to default, prompting the much-feared contagion across Europe. In the event though, Greece’s creditors decided that triggering a financial apocalypse was not perhaps in their best interests, and more than 95% accepted the deal. Cue much jubilation among Greek and European Union public … [Read more...] about Pound to euro stable as central banks hold rates
A bit of Greece in Valencia
Even before the disturbances this week in Valencia, the city and its surrounding region laid claim to some pretty worrying badges of honour. It’s the capital of Gürtel, the biggest political corruption scandal in Spain of recent times, and the home of Francisco Camps, the former Valencia regional premier who was absolved of any involvement in the affair after insisting he pays for his €3,000 suits in cash and doesn’t bother keeping the receipts. It’s also the most heavily indebted region in Spain, with a €20-billion deficit, leaving it perilously close to failing to make a debt payment to Deutsche Bank recently. It hosts Castellón airport, perhaps Spain’s most notorious white-elephant … [Read more...] about A bit of Greece in Valencia
Getting to the bottom of Spain’s daunting unemployment rate
Of the many bits of bad economic news Spain has received this past year, including finding deficits were higher than expected and growth rates much lower, perhaps no other figure has proven as weighty and daunting as the country’s unemployment rate. Reports released at the end of January saw that number rise to 22.9 percent, adding another dismal headline to the Rajoy government’s first full month in office: nearly 5.3 million people out of work with declines in available positions across the board, from services to the country’s still collapsing construction sector. Capturing the dour outlook of the country’s current situation, The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson summarized the statistics … [Read more...] about Getting to the bottom of Spain’s daunting unemployment rate
Rajoy approaches the big job with his head down
As rumours that next year’s general election will be brought forward to the autumn intensify, so does the realisation that by the end of the year, Mariano Rajoy could be prime minister. The strange thing is, judging by his party’s recent behaviour, this doesn’t seem to have dawned on him. If he had fully grasped the reality of his situation, you would think he would tone down the talk of Spain being an economic basket case. But his opposition Popular Party (PP) is determined to hint, suggest, or just plain decry, that the country is in real trouble. Since last year, the PP has been openly wondering whether Spain deserves to be in the same bracket as Greece, Portugal and Ireland. In … [Read more...] about Rajoy approaches the big job with his head down
Spain: Too big to fail?
The European Union’s three victims-so-far of the global financial meltdown have, not incorrectly, been described as the economic bloc’s periphery. Their economies are relatively small and, though at times worries about their debts have undermined the euro currency, their problems – even taken in combination – are hardly likely to bring the bloc to its knees. Individually, they were sick from a debilitating cocktail of similar problems: bed-ridden with debt and weak from a bad diet of profligate government spending and loan-happy banks. Nothing, it seemed, that a dose of bailout money from the EU and IMF could not cure with a trip to the emergency ward. Spain is showing similar symptoms. … [Read more...] about Spain: Too big to fail?
Spain and Portugal’s right shun austerity and Brussels – for now
It’s easy to see parallels between the governments of Spain and Portugal of recent years. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and José Sócrates were both fresh-faced Socialists when they took power in 2004 and 2005 respectively, promising social reforms as well as economic stability. Both were voted in for second terms before running aground on the challenges that arose following the world economic crisis. Like their Socialist counterpart in Greece, Georgios Papandreou, both men have been forced by circumstances to repress their political instincts and introduce heavy spending cuts and painful reforms. In Portugal, where the economic outlook is worse, the opposition’s withdrawal of support for a … [Read more...] about Spain and Portugal’s right shun austerity and Brussels – for now
Political turmoil threatens to rock Spain’s recovery
Only a few weeks ago, the big argument raging about Spain was whether or not it was “the next Greece”. The size of its deficit, difficulties in getting the economy growing again and its harsh treatment at the hands of international markets all made it look like the prize candidate for the EU’s next massive bailout. Many observers suspected a visit by IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan to Madrid in June was the prelude to just such a move as José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s handling of the economy came under immense scrutiny. Now, however, the situation is slightly different. The bailout has not transpired and while the country has certainly not emerged blinking in the sunlight of market … [Read more...] about Political turmoil threatens to rock Spain’s recovery