Close to 18 months after its catastrophic general election defeat, the Socialist Party remains further away from power than ever. Opinion polls have it trailing behind a Popular Party that has pushed through unprecedented austerity measures that only seem to deepen the recession, while Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who has broken every electoral pledge he made, now admits that there will be no improvement in the economy until at least 2016. Unemployment continues to rise, and the health and education systems are being dismantled before our eyes. And that’s without going into the Bárcenas corruption allegations. The ideal conditions, surely, for the Socialist Party to launch a sustained … [Read more...] about Spain’s Socialists are desperate for new blood
spain crisis
Rajoy’s problems aren’t what they used to be
At the end of last year, I spoke to several political analysts about the year ahead, for Iberosphere’s preview of Spain in 2013. One of the questions I asked them was about how safe Mariano Rajoy’s political position was. The experts were fairly unanimous: the prime minister may be under pressure due to the economic crisis, but he has a congressional majority and he’s safe, at least until the next general election, expected in 2015. A few months on, things look slightly different. In January the Bárcenas corruption scandal exploded, the biggest of its kind in recent Spanish history. Its substantial allegations taint the governing Partido Popular (PP), several of its senior figures and … [Read more...] about Rajoy’s problems aren’t what they used to be
Valencia cooks up controversy with “bread war”
They call it the “bread war” and amid all the dramas of Spain’s economic crisis, it seems at first sight like little more than a novelty. But the decision taken by a Valencia bakery to slash the price of its loaves of bread is the cause of celebration for some and bitter recrimination for others. José Navarro is the local baker-cum-businessman who is behind the venture. He now has nine bakeries carrying his surname that offer a regular, fresh loaf of bread for just 20 euro cents each. With many of Navarro’s competitors selling at between 80 cents and one euro per loaf, his nine bakeries across the Valencia region draw long queues each morning that stretch out onto the street. In … [Read more...] about Valencia cooks up controversy with “bread war”
Do EU migration trends put Spain’s health and pensions system at risk?
According to The Economist’s Buttonwood, “desperate times require desperate measures”. I am sure this is right, times in Spain are certainly getting desperate and many of the measures being implemented in Brussels, far from being radical look much more like continually closing the door after the horse has bolted. The issue Buttonwood draws our attention to in the blog post accompanying this statement is that of migration trends within the euro area and the impact these have on trend GDP growth and structural budget deficits in the various member countries. This is an important issue indeed, since such movements seem to be an unforeseen and largely unmeasured by-product of the current … [Read more...] about Do EU migration trends put Spain’s health and pensions system at risk?
A closer look at the lost generation
On a day when Spain’s unemployment figures have once again broken records, I was drawn to another set of data which may be equally bleak, but which offers a more subtle insight into how the country functions. A poll commissioned by Cadena SER looks at the attitudes of Spaniards aged between 22 and 30, the so-called “lost generation” who, we have been repeatedly told, can’t find a job, can’t buy a house and hate their politicians. All of that is confirmed in this study, but a breakdown of the figures makes for fascinating reading. The most shocking finding for me was that only 38 percent of young people live exclusively off their own revenue; 21 percent survive with the help of family … [Read more...] about A closer look at the lost generation
Ladies and gentlemen, the next prime minister of Spain…?
Should María Dolores de Cospedal weather the latest corruption allegations to hit the Popular Party (PP), there’s every likelihood she will progress from being its secretary general and premier of the regional government of Castilla-La Mancha to replacing Mariano Rajoy in the top post and go on to become Spain’s first female prime minister. Cospedal’s rise has been rapid. Born in 1965, she grew up in Castilla-La Mancha, training as a government lawyer after finishing university, and joining the Labour Ministry in 1997 after José Maria Aznar ushered in the first PP administration the previous year. During the PP’s two terms in office she moved up the ladder, making it to under-secretary … [Read more...] about Ladies and gentlemen, the next prime minister of Spain…?
Tales for Tapas: Turning points
Bowing to a campaign that gathered one-and-a-half million signatures, the People’s Party this week dropped its opposition to a debate on legislation intended to mitigate the social and financial impact of home evictions. The parliamentary initiative follows a rise in suicides associated with mortgage foreclosures – a shocking barometer of the human cost of economic austerity. Under the new measures, social housing would be made available to families that have been evicted, and mortgages would be cancelled when homes are handed over to the bank. Some argue that market forces will restore prosperity as long as they are allowed to work and that remedial social programmes are no more than … [Read more...] about Tales for Tapas: Turning points
Spain’s King Juan Carlos seeks to stem the opprobrium
Not so long ago, the boos that echoed around Vitoria’s Buesa Arena on the arrival of King Juan Carlos for the basketball Copa del Rey final at the weekend would have surprised many Spaniards and scandalised quite a few others. Such an open display of hostility towards the monarch would have been almost unthinkable. And yet on Sunday, when the booing was so loud that the playing of the national anthem ahead of the game between Barcelona and Valencia was cut short, it no longer seemed all that surprising or shocking, such is the sliding esteem of the Spanish royal family. The most defining moment of the reign of Juan Carlos now looks so far away it could be from another era. In 1981, the … [Read more...] about Spain’s King Juan Carlos seeks to stem the opprobrium
Has Spain’s economic contraction become self-perpetuating?
Spain’s political leaders are in cheerful mood at the moment. According to the country’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, the Spanish economy will return to growth in the second half of 2013. “The perception of the Spanish economy has improved and will continue to do so over the coming weeks and months,” he told his audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Earth-shattering it will not be, but grow it will, he insisted. Perhaps, he suggested, the economy will be stationary in the third quarter, with very slight growth in the fourth. And quite possibly he is right. The core of the problem is whether any faltering growth emerging in the last three months of the year will be sustained … [Read more...] about Has Spain’s economic contraction become self-perpetuating?
The next Spain
There’s an overwhelming consensus all across Spain that “we can’t go on like this”. Yet there’s an equally determined belief within the Rajoy government that we can, and in fact will, go on like this until it somehow gets better. Which means that someone – either the government with its faith that everything will come out well, or the entire population of the country, who believe that it won’t – has got it wrong. In this article I will take it as an assumption that the existing state of Spain will not be able to survive long enough to hold general elections again in 2015, and that therefore Rajoy’s Partido Popular government will be the last of the 1978-model Kingdom of Spain. How will … [Read more...] about The next Spain