Spain’s exports share of GDP has jumped from just 23 percent at the outset of 2009 to close to 35 percent in 2013. In March, the country registered its first trade surplus since records began in 1971, becoming the only European Union member whose sales abroad increased during the first quarter. This has unleashed a wave of optimism among foreign media, analysts and the government. “Spain's Crisis Fades as Exports Transform Country”, was the headline of a recent Bloomberg news story. Daniele Antonucci, senior European economist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC in April that Spanish economic growth will come from outbound sales, a point of view Luis de Guindos, Spain’s minister of economy and … [Read more...] about Turbo-charged exports won’t drive Spain out of the crisis
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Do EU migration trends put Spain’s health and pensions system at risk?
According to The Economist’s Buttonwood, “desperate times require desperate measures”. I am sure this is right, times in Spain are certainly getting desperate and many of the measures being implemented in Brussels, far from being radical look much more like continually closing the door after the horse has bolted. The issue Buttonwood draws our attention to in the blog post accompanying this statement is that of migration trends within the euro area and the impact these have on trend GDP growth and structural budget deficits in the various member countries. This is an important issue indeed, since such movements seem to be an unforeseen and largely unmeasured by-product of the current … [Read more...] about Do EU migration trends put Spain’s health and pensions system at risk?
The great Portuguese hollowing out
As Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva once put it, "A country without children is a nation without a future." He was, of course, referring to his country’s ultra-low birth rate, which is just over 1.3 TFR and has been below replacement level (2.1 TFR) since the early 1980s. In 2012 only just over 90,000 children were born in the country, the lowest number in more than a century – you need to go back to the 19th century to find numbers like those we have been seeing since the crisis really took hold. But added to this longstanding, yet unaddressed, problem there is now another just as dangerous one. High unemployment levels and the lack of job opportunities are leading an increasing … [Read more...] about The great Portuguese hollowing out
What now for the “PIGS”?
Spanish savings bank La Caixa recently brought to market a €1-billion issue of three-year cédulas territoriales at 70 basis points over similar sovereign debt. As for the investors – 49 percent of these securities backed by loans to Spanish public administrations were picked up by German or British parties and 36 percent by locals. Given the horrific recent treatment of Greek debt, this benign event probably invites a closer look at the tenets behind the classification of a nation as one of the “PIGS” - as if the mere fact that Spanish sovereign 10-years are yielding approximately the same as when the crisis broke last December, whilst the Italian equivalent pays investors 10 basis points … [Read more...] about What now for the “PIGS”?
History repeats in Portugal
Walk the streets of any Portuguese city and sooner or later you will come across a scene that seems unchanged for decades: shoe-shiners on Lisbon’s Avenida da Libertade, elderly ladies hanging laundry from tumbledown balconies in old Porto or fish sun-drying on the beach in Nazaré. One of Europe’s most unassuming and introverted countries, Portugal is a place where the past is gazed upon with a sense of melancholy – until, of course, the past comes back with a bite. Since late January, Portugal has taken a battering on international markets, as its bond prices have plunged and ratings agencies have threatened to cut the country’s credit grade amid fears over rising budget deficits and … [Read more...] about History repeats in Portugal