As Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva once put it, "A country without children is a nation without a future." He was, of course, referring to his country’s ultra-low birth rate, which is just over 1.3 TFR and has been below replacement level (2.1 TFR) since the early 1980s. In 2012 only just over 90,000 children were born in the country, the lowest number in more than a century – you need to go back to the 19th century to find numbers like those we have been seeing since the crisis really took hold. But added to this longstanding, yet unaddressed, problem there is now another just as dangerous one. High unemployment levels and the lack of job opportunities are leading an increasing … [Read more...] about The great Portuguese hollowing out
portugal economy
Portugal’s spy who came in from the cold
Jorge Silva Carvalho is a Portuguese former spy who was in charge of the country’s external intelligence services from 2008 until 2011. Well-connected and ambitious, Carvalho had dreamed of one day being appointed interior minister. But instead he was seduced, in 2011, by a better job: internal “agent” at a private company, Ongoing, a media outlet run by Nuno Vasconcelos with Angolan capital. But the former spy is now in the eye of the hurricane, after public prosecutors charged him with abusing his position, corruption and violating state secrets. According to those charges, Carvalho, after signing a lucrative contract with Ongoing, used his connections within the Portuguese secret … [Read more...] about Portugal’s spy who came in from the cold
Thrifty newcomer may be just the ticket in profligate Portugal
Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s prime minister-elect, does not like wasting money. Both in his professional career and personal life, he has been described as thrifty, frugal, even tight-fisted. He currently lives in a standard apartment block in the none-too-fashionable Lisbon district of Amadora, but if he moves into the prime minister’s residence near the São Bento Palace his stinginess may come in handy in solving Portugal’s debt and deficit crisis. That, at least, appears to be what many Portuguese were thinking when they handed victory to Passos Coelho’s centre-right Social Democrats (PSD) in last Sunday’s general election, coupled with a desire to get rid of the Socialist … [Read more...] about Thrifty newcomer may be just the ticket in profligate Portugal
A bitter celebration as Portugal remembers the Carnation Revolution
Thirty-seven years ago today, a swell of disenchantment with the Portuguese government of Marcello Caetano, a continuation of the regime of long-time dictator António Salazar, prompted a group of army officers to lead a coup. Word spread, resistance was virtually non-existent and in the space of a few non-violent hours, the regime was on the verge of being ousted. The putsch culminated in a strange scenario in which Caetano locked himself inside the National Republican Guard building in Lisbon’s Carmo Square as a massive crowd – including armed soldiers and curious men, women and children from the neighbourhood – gathered to watch. After several hours, Caetano gave in and signed a … [Read more...] about A bitter celebration as Portugal remembers the Carnation Revolution
Spain and Portugal’s right shun austerity and Brussels – for now
It’s easy to see parallels between the governments of Spain and Portugal of recent years. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and José Sócrates were both fresh-faced Socialists when they took power in 2004 and 2005 respectively, promising social reforms as well as economic stability. Both were voted in for second terms before running aground on the challenges that arose following the world economic crisis. Like their Socialist counterpart in Greece, Georgios Papandreou, both men have been forced by circumstances to repress their political instincts and introduce heavy spending cuts and painful reforms. In Portugal, where the economic outlook is worse, the opposition’s withdrawal of support for a … [Read more...] about Spain and Portugal’s right shun austerity and Brussels – for now
Bailout beckons as Portugal’s Sócrates resigns
Try, try again… then quit. Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates stepped down late on Wednesday saying “today, I am convinced the country is lost,” after a last-ditch effort to push through new austerity measures and avoid a Greek-style bailout failed to win support in the Lisbon parliament. The resignation of Sócrates and his minority centre-left government effectively pushes Portugal into the arms of the European Union and the IMF, with many analysts now saying that the debt-laden Iberian state can do little to avoid following in the footsteps of Greece and Ireland, both of which were bailed out last year when their bond yields reached unsustainable levels. At around 7.8 percent, … [Read more...] about Bailout beckons as Portugal’s Sócrates resigns
Portugal’s history echoes down the ages
Portugal has been a regular feature in international news headlines lately. Sadly, though, it is usually mentioned for the wrong reasons, such as worries about its ability to manage its chaotic finances and finance its debt. This glut of attention contrasts with the near invisibility Portugal has maintained for much of the last few decades on the international stage, with few figures other than its footballers and the occasional writer making an impact beyond its own borders. In The Portuguese: A Modern History, Barry Hatton explores both the reasons for the country’s see-sawing international profile and the roots of its more recent economic woes. A Lisbon-based journalist who has … [Read more...] about Portugal’s history echoes down the ages
Portugal’s debt: a tale of pride and prejudice
Borrowing costs on Portugal’s debt have hit a level that proved unsustainable for both Greece and Ireland, but Lisbon is refusing to countenance talk of an EU bailout. Can this small, recession-prone nation hold out much longer? Long lumped along with Ireland, Greece and Spain as one of the so-called PIGS, Portugal has so far managed to face down fears about its ability to service its debt better than many policymakers, economists and investors could have expected. Even as the yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds soared to 7.63 percent in mid-February –the highest level since the country became a founder member of the single currency at the end of the 1990s– and the European Central … [Read more...] about Portugal’s debt: a tale of pride and prejudice