Spain’s exports share of GDP has jumped from just 23 percent at the outset of 2009 to close to 35 percent in 2013. In March, the country registered its first trade surplus since records began in 1971, becoming the only European Union member whose sales abroad increased during the first quarter. This has unleashed a wave of optimism among foreign media, analysts and the government. “Spain's Crisis Fades as Exports Transform Country”, was the headline of a recent Bloomberg news story. Daniele Antonucci, senior European economist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC in April that Spanish economic growth will come from outbound sales, a point of view Luis de Guindos, Spain’s minister of economy and … [Read more...] about Turbo-charged exports won’t drive Spain out of the crisis
unemployment
Beyond their ken?
"To a herd of rams, the ram the herdsman drives each evening into a special enclosure to feed and that becomes twice as fat as the others must seem to be a genius. And it must appear an astonishing conjunction of genius with a whole series of extraordinary chances that this ram, who instead of getting into the general fold every evening goes into a special enclosure where there are oats- that this very ram, swelling with fat, is killed for meat". - Tolstoy, ‘War & Peace’. After so many false dawns, the recent announcement by Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that the government was revising down its 2013 economic forecast hardly caused a blink among a citizenry that is now … [Read more...] about Beyond their ken?
The great Portuguese hollowing out
As Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva once put it, "A country without children is a nation without a future." He was, of course, referring to his country’s ultra-low birth rate, which is just over 1.3 TFR and has been below replacement level (2.1 TFR) since the early 1980s. In 2012 only just over 90,000 children were born in the country, the lowest number in more than a century – you need to go back to the 19th century to find numbers like those we have been seeing since the crisis really took hold. But added to this longstanding, yet unaddressed, problem there is now another just as dangerous one. High unemployment levels and the lack of job opportunities are leading an increasing … [Read more...] about The great Portuguese hollowing out
A slice of Vegas in Spain stirs controversy
It sounds like the answer to the prayers of the Spanish government. A multi-billion-dollar gambling complex led by an American tycoon who promises to bring the glamour of California to Spain and kick-start the country’s struggling economy by creating a quarter of a million jobs. But EuroVegas, as it’s known, is also a scheme that has sparked fears about spiralling crime, prostitution and environmental violations and which has highlighted the age-old tensions between Spain’s two main cities. American casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, with an estimated $25-billion fortune, plans to build a European gambling hub that will include six casinos and 12 hotels. His Las Vegas Sands company says … [Read more...] about A slice of Vegas in Spain stirs controversy
Rajoy, reform and the burden of employment expectations
As thousands took to the streets at the weekend, it quickly became clear that the Partido Popular’s approach to job creation had more than a few critics. Focusing their anger on reforms passed on February 9, critics called out the new government’s efforts to reduce mandatory severance pay from 45 to 33 days per year worked and allowing what they felt was an unfair freedom for companies to opt out of collective bargaining agreements and adjust wages and hours according to their financial standing. The Rajoy government insisted that it “wants to give firms the ability to modify workers' hours in response to demand rather than simply laying them off, bringing an end to the rapid rise in … [Read more...] about Rajoy, reform and the burden of employment expectations
Getting to the bottom of Spain’s daunting unemployment rate
Of the many bits of bad economic news Spain has received this past year, including finding deficits were higher than expected and growth rates much lower, perhaps no other figure has proven as weighty and daunting as the country’s unemployment rate. Reports released at the end of January saw that number rise to 22.9 percent, adding another dismal headline to the Rajoy government’s first full month in office: nearly 5.3 million people out of work with declines in available positions across the board, from services to the country’s still collapsing construction sector. Capturing the dour outlook of the country’s current situation, The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson summarized the statistics … [Read more...] about Getting to the bottom of Spain’s daunting unemployment rate
Malcontents in search of democracy
It is a voice of alarm that brings together the feelings of several generations, nationalities, political colors and economic classes. It is probable that we are witnessing in these gatherings an exercise in real and participatory democracy. Others, however, consider that the protestors are living in a utopia outside of the reality imposed by the market economy. Nonetheless, there are some who foresee a new phase in Spanish democracy. For that reason, the protests that took place on Sunday, June 19 are a breath of fresh air in a society threatened by the economic crisis, unemployment and the indifference of the justice system to cases of corruption in certain political circles. Putting to … [Read more...] about Malcontents in search of democracy
What will follow the Spanish Spring?
“They have gathered 30,000 signatures but have forgotten what they are for.” Besides being purely mischievous, there is also a shade of truth behind this headline from satirical website El Mundo Today. Over the last month, Spain has seen a swelling of civic outrage at its dysfunctional political system, expressed through the 15-M, or Democracia Real Ya, protest movement, whose members have occupied squares around the country. Those sleeping-bag protests are now ending and the most symbolic one of all, that in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, has voted to pack up and move on. Now, still bristling with outrage, 15-M is organising neighbourhood assemblies and one-off demonstrations, such as … [Read more...] about What will follow the Spanish Spring?
With almost five million out of work, Spain’s unemployment crisis rages on
In January 2009, Spain’s then Labour Minister Celestino Corbacho declared confidently that the number of jobless people in Spain would not surpass the four million mark. It took only three months for him to eat his own words as unemployment shot past that psychologically significant level. It has continued to tick upwards ever since. Corbacho lost his job in October last year. Now another minister, Elena Salgado, who holds the economy portfolio and serves as second deputy prime minister, is also putting her credibility on the line. In a press conference on Thursday, she said five-million plus job seekers is not on the cards. “In the opinion of the Economy Ministry that figure will not … [Read more...] about With almost five million out of work, Spain’s unemployment crisis rages on
Not yet a Greek tragedy, but still a Spanish drama
“Complete insanity” is how Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero summed up speculation that his government had approached the International Monetary Fund to request a €280-billion bailout. “These rumours can increase differences and hurt the interests of our country, which is simply intolerable and of course we intend to fight it,” he told reporters in Brussels ahead of an emergency summit among leaders of countries using the euro currency. The IMF also denied the speculation. The rumours that Spain was looking for help started circulating after the European Union and the IMF agreed on Sunday to the first bailout of a euro-zone country, giving Greece a €110-billion loan over … [Read more...] about Not yet a Greek tragedy, but still a Spanish drama