The UK pound kept close to the 1.20 mark against the euro this week, as economic data in both the UK and eurozone points to a difficult road for 2012. In particular, in the UK retail sales dropped a precipitous –0.8% last month, signalling that consumers are no more confident in their prospects, while the coalition government borrowed more than twice as much as forecast. In Europe meanwhile, attention has turned to Spain and Italy, where crucial labour reforms are being debated, while spluttering manufacturing output points to a deepening recession. UK retailers on the back foot UK retail sales declined double the expected rate last month, falling –0.8% compared to the -0.4% forecast. … [Read more...] about UK pound to euro exchange rate stable as outlook darkens
euro crisis
Pound to euro unchanged on mixed UK-EU outlook
The pound to euro exchange rate remains unchanged at 1.20 this week, as a series of economic releases indicate that growth in both the UK and Eurozone will be hard-won in 2012. In particular, credit rating agency Fitch has threatened to slash the UK’s triple A credit rating, while in Europe, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has pointed to the competitiveness gap between northern and southern members as the next big hurdle. Looking ahead, it looks as though the pound-to-euro rate will remain tethered inside the 1.1750-1.20 range established at the outset of 2012, unless a disaster in either Britain or Europe tips the balance. In the UK, pessimism has flared as rating agency … [Read more...] about Pound to euro unchanged on mixed UK-EU outlook
Pound to euro stable as central banks hold rates
The situation in Greece especially has topped the headlines this past week, and had the potential to send the euro into meltdown had it not turned out so well. The Greek government conducted a debt swap, aimed at getting bondholders holding more than €200bn in Greek bonds to change their bonds for ones worth 75% less. Had they refused, Greece would have been refused its €130bn EU bailout and been forced to default, prompting the much-feared contagion across Europe. In the event though, Greece’s creditors decided that triggering a financial apocalypse was not perhaps in their best interests, and more than 95% accepted the deal. Cue much jubilation among Greek and European Union public … [Read more...] about Pound to euro stable as central banks hold rates
Rajoy’s smoke and mirrors have worked – for now, at least
If we have learnt anything about Spain’s new prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, since he took power in December, it’s that his reputation for being anything but straightforward when conveying his intentions is well deserved. Rajoy has often been portrayed as the embodiment of retranca, a tendency his fellow Galicians are known for to answer questions with ambiguity and multiple meanings. The first two months of his tenure have seen Rajoy behave every bit like the stereotypical Galician. An early example of this was when the prime minister deployed his front-line ministers to announce a major tax increase, just days after himself announcing that “my intention is not to raise taxes.” And now … [Read more...] about Rajoy’s smoke and mirrors have worked – for now, at least
Is Spain set to follow Greece?
Even without fully grasping the situation in Greece right now, it’s difficult to read the list of austerity measures being imposed on it without feeling shocked. Public workers like teachers must return wages, because the debt deal is backdated to November. The government must cut €300m from public pensions, leaving people in and approaching retirement destitute. Greece must auction its €110 billion gold reserves in the event it fails to meet targets, removing the absolute last means of funding itself when all others are exhausted. For its pains, in all likelihood Greece will be forced to return to Brussels in 12 months to request more funds, because these same demands are pushing it … [Read more...] about Is Spain set to follow Greece?
Euro stumbles as Greece ups its brinkmanship
On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos accused German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble of more or less plotting to push Greece out of the euro, while Schaeuble in turn said he is tired of dumping money into a black hole. This has delayed the dispatch of the second Greek bailout, bringing Greece closer to the March deadline before it defaults. For me, the dispute raises an interesting point about who is to blame per se for this continuing Greece debacle. Reading around, it seems to me the EU is getting a bad rep here, with Germany especially being painted as a dictatorial monster. Is this the case? I mean - I concede that the EU is a bureaucratic nightmare, but is … [Read more...] about Euro stumbles as Greece ups its brinkmanship
How much more can Greece take?
The euro has enjoyed an optimistic week. In particular, reports that the coalition in Greece has agreed a debt reduction plan with its creditors following eight long months of negotiations have boosted sentiment. From here on, Greece’s creditors will accept a 70.0% loss in the value of their existing government bonds, while receiving just 4.0% interest on the new ones. (This is a little like going into a negotiating room and not only coming out with no gains, but losing your trousers and shirt in addition. It is astonishing bondholders accepted these terms, and must reflect incredible pressure from the EU.) Of course, this is but one side of the coin. In return, Greece must implement … [Read more...] about How much more can Greece take?