The pound to euro exchange rate remains unchanged at 1.20 this week, as a series of economic releases indicate that growth in both the UK and Eurozone will be hard-won in 2012. In particular, credit rating agency Fitch has threatened to slash the UK’s triple A credit rating, while in Europe, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has pointed to the competitiveness gap between northern and southern members as the next big hurdle. Looking ahead, it looks as though the pound-to-euro rate will remain tethered inside the 1.1750-1.20 range established at the outset of 2012, unless a disaster in either Britain or Europe tips the balance. In the UK, pessimism has flared as rating agency … [Read more...] about Pound to euro unchanged on mixed UK-EU outlook
foreign exchange
Pound to euro rate rises on ECB loan scheme
In particular, the Long Term Refinancing Operation by the European Central Bank has stoked concerns European banks might be close to collapse, while unemployment on the continent continues to climb. The European Central Bank initiated its second loan scheme this week, called the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO.) The scheme is intended to provide European banks unlimited loans for three years at just 1.00%, and since round one in December has been widely credited with preventing a credit crunch in Europe. In the event this second round proved more popular than the first, with 800 banks borrowing €529.5 billion. On the one hand this is testament to the willingness of the ECB to … [Read more...] about Pound to euro rate rises on ECB loan scheme
Is Spain set to follow Greece?
Even without fully grasping the situation in Greece right now, it’s difficult to read the list of austerity measures being imposed on it without feeling shocked. Public workers like teachers must return wages, because the debt deal is backdated to November. The government must cut €300m from public pensions, leaving people in and approaching retirement destitute. Greece must auction its €110 billion gold reserves in the event it fails to meet targets, removing the absolute last means of funding itself when all others are exhausted. For its pains, in all likelihood Greece will be forced to return to Brussels in 12 months to request more funds, because these same demands are pushing it … [Read more...] about Is Spain set to follow Greece?
Euro stumbles as Greece ups its brinkmanship
On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos accused German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble of more or less plotting to push Greece out of the euro, while Schaeuble in turn said he is tired of dumping money into a black hole. This has delayed the dispatch of the second Greek bailout, bringing Greece closer to the March deadline before it defaults. For me, the dispute raises an interesting point about who is to blame per se for this continuing Greece debacle. Reading around, it seems to me the EU is getting a bad rep here, with Germany especially being painted as a dictatorial monster. Is this the case? I mean - I concede that the EU is a bureaucratic nightmare, but is … [Read more...] about Euro stumbles as Greece ups its brinkmanship
UK to dodge the recession bullet?
(In case you don't know, the UK services PMI is a monthly measure of productivity in the UK services industry. It accounts for two thirds of economic output in Britain, and so is crucial in determining UK growth.) This month UK services took market forecasts, chopped them into small chunks with onions and carrots, fried them, and ate them for dinner. The PMI hit 56.0 (releases above 50.0 mean growth and the higher the better.) This compares to 54.0 the month before, and expectations of a slowdown to 53.5. It’s a 10 month high for UK services, and the biggest single jump on record. Great! Of course, before this, economists thought Britain would soon be re-entering recession. The economy … [Read more...] about UK to dodge the recession bullet?