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Adios to Zapatero in 2012?

Spanish media are reporting that Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will announce tomorrow his decision not to run as a candidate in the 2012 general election… is anyone surprised?


The likelihood of Zapatero seeking a third term in 2012 has been looking increasingly slim for months as the economy has remained mired by the global financial crisis and his Socialist Party’s ratings have deflated in opinion polls. The party looks likely to face a severe lashing in local elections in May.

Several surveys, including one (admittedly unscientific) poll by Iberosphere, have found that few people think Zapatero will try to stay on. In the Iberosphere poll, published on the home page for the past month, a full third of respondents said they thought Zapatero would not seek re-election, versus 22 percent who thought he would and 12 percent who said they didn’t know or didn’t care.

If Zapatero does announce his departure, the Socialists’ are expected to announce his replacement as their 2012 candidate within a few weeks. Most bets are on Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the deputy prime minister.

Our new poll, also published on the home page, asks whether readers support the Zapatero administration’s support for international military intervention in Libya.

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Published: Apr 1 2011
Category: Iberoblog
Republication: Creative Commons, non-commercial
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