To move her to the ayuntamiento means finding a dignified way of giving Aznar’s wife the boot. A move like this made sense when Aznar did it with Gallardón because the latter had appeal beyond the PP’s core vote. Aguirre doesn’t have that cross-party appeal and could potentially be an additional vote loser if things are going badly for the national government.

The important thing to remember is that the PP is not a federal party and Madrid is not Soria. So the national party has the last word on candidates for Madrid, Aguirre had very little influence over the general election lists for the capital. With Rajoy still in a strong position come the next regional elections I think she will be eased out. Rajoy doesn’t just like his revenge served cold, he likes to leave it in the freezer until he finishes reading Marca.

Equally, Ignacio Gonzalez will not take over if Mariano is still in charge. Apart from having criticised the leader there are certain, ahem, character issues associated with him. Not that this is always an obstacle to advancement in the PP. Cifuentes could be a possibility, she seems to have managed to please both camps – not an easy thing to do. Lucia Figar is mentioned as a possibility but if she smiles too much at Rajoy she’ll be out on the street faster than you can say lideresa.

Aguirre built her power base in Madrid by stuffing her administration with dozens of PP notables when they lost national power. But most of these people are not necessarily loyal to her. She had her chance in 2008 and she blew it. A major crisis for Rajoy’s government could easily change all of this, but Aguirre will not necessarily benefit – she’s made too many enemies and there is another generation waiting for their chance.